Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 33.875821 36.555227 39.496867 42.996028 47.085761 51.767523 57.612532
2025-10-19 30.251987 33.838069 38.049068 43.465694 50.419707 59.316753 72.069359
2025-10-26 28.592682 32.762002 37.890211 44.873699 54.519858 68.078614 90.215451
2025-11-02 26.914389 31.362365 37.016902 45.049611 56.796924 74.658415 107.538823
2025-11-09 24.952180 29.373792 35.109826 43.478579 56.183437 76.575584 117.641761
2025-11-16 23.307109 27.650382 33.372874 41.897546 55.232567 77.622985 126.461537
2025-11-23 22.698660 27.236851 33.355498 42.762725 58.183037 86.054243 156.133849
2025-11-30 21.867375 26.453467 32.740248 42.633526 59.437940 91.654833 183.552357
2025-12-07 21.009575 25.575287 31.915282 42.077065 59.841115 95.631322 210.358996
2025-12-14 19.774589 24.110013 30.149937 39.876364 57.006791 91.979122 207.833921
2025-12-21 19.302411 23.690273 29.887664 40.068319 58.583856 98.654734 253.857231
2025-12-28 19.333551 23.978066 30.683349 42.062021 63.907875 116.400661 401.816469
2026-01-04 18.524998 23.121751 29.847857 41.496273 64.657935 124.494142 564.693664
2026-01-11 17.977254 22.629410 29.560901 41.904683 67.699468 142.089209 1210.519262
2026-01-18 17.680178 22.477052 29.778304 43.226198 73.144306 173.712944 213231.353362
2026-01-25 17.182634 21.988107 29.407369 43.390523 75.915294 199.304146 NaN
2026-02-01 16.425954 21.064165 28.258242 41.919411 74.172132 201.921624 NaN
2026-02-08 15.725028 20.195755 27.152992 40.436248 72.138527 201.830919 NaN
2026-02-15 15.487071 20.027696 27.201654 41.248201 76.546312 246.992918 NaN
2026-02-22 15.107242 19.619094 26.814491 41.127001 78.312766 280.725753 NaN
2026-03-01 14.688718 19.131310 26.262366 40.604789 78.770048 306.846675 NaN
2026-03-08 14.044807 18.266738 25.022252 38.536255 74.078513 276.815575 NaN
2026-03-15 13.797545 18.021466 24.844414 38.716891 76.523446 326.357419 NaN